Rising tensions with India are expected to trigger a fresh surge in Pakistan’s defence spending, potentially fueling a renewed arms race between the two neighbors. While India’s military spending response tends to be more measured, a Moneycontrol analysis reveals that Pakistan historically embarks on sharp spending sprees following periods of heightened tensions—sprees that typically last between two to four years.
World Bank data highlights these patterns: after Pakistan’s annual defence spending growth slowed to single digits by 2016, the figure sharply rebounded to 14.1% in 2017 following India’s Uri surgical strikes. In 2018, Pakistan’s military expenditure surged further, jumping 17.5% over the previous year—the country’s steepest increase in seven years.
This is not an isolated trend. After the 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks, Pakistan’s defence budget rose from a 13.4% increase in 2008 to 17.1% in 2009. On average, from 2009 to 2013, Pakistan’s defence spending climbed by 17.4% annually.
Looking even further back, the flare-up in Kashmir tensions in 2000 and the Indian Parliament attack in 2001 sparked another period of accelerated spending. Between 2000 and 2004, Pakistan’s annual defence expenditure grew at an average of 11.4%, nearly double the 6.6% average increase seen in the five years prior.
As current India-Pakistan tensions simmer, history suggests Pakistan is likely heading into another multi-year cycle of elevated defence spending